Lock of the Week
Sat Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET
Wisconsin at UCLA
UCLA −3.5
- Model margin
- UCLA by 7.2
- Spread edge
- +3.7
- Projected score
- 27–20
The rest of the week
| Matchup | Pick | Model margin | Edge | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan at Central Michigan | Western Michigan −7 | Western Michigan by 11.0 | +4.0 | 29–18 |
| Washington State at Oregon State | Oregon State −17.5 | Oregon State by 20.7 | +3.2 | 35–14 |
| Florida State at Miami-FL | Miami-FL −21.5 | Miami-FL by 24.5 | +3.0 | 40–16 |
| East Carolina at UAB | East Carolina −4.5 | East Carolina by 9.0 | +4.5 | 29–20 |
| Fresno State at San Diego State | Fresno State −8.5 | Fresno State by 11.3 | +2.8 | 30–19 |
| Northern Illinois at Wyoming | Wyoming −7 | Wyoming by 12.1 | +5.1 | 28–16 |
| Georgia State at James Madison | James Madison −11.5 | James Madison by 16.7 | +5.2 | 37–20 |
| Louisiana Tech at UL-Monroe | Louisiana Tech −14.5 | Louisiana Tech by 20.0 | +5.5 | 40–20 |
| Memphis at Tulane | Memphis −7 | Memphis by 12.6 | +5.6 | 33–20 |
| North Carolina at Duke | Duke −3.5 | Duke by 5.8 | +2.3 | 29–23 |
| Troy at UL-Lafayette | UL-Lafayette −4.5 | UL-Lafayette by 6.8 | +2.3 | 30–24 |
| Northwestern at Michigan State | Northwestern −8.5 | Northwestern by 14.3 | +5.8 | 34–19 |
High confidence
This week’s totals
Top total
Sat Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET
Kentucky at Oklahoma
Over 43.5
- Model total
- 49
- O/U edge
- +5.2
- Projected score
- 28–21
| Matchup | Pick | Model total | Edge | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas at Vanderbilt | Over 50.5 | 56 | +4.9 | 31–25 |
| Fresno State at San Diego State | Over 44.5 | 49 | +4.9 | 30–19 |
| Ball State at Bowling Green | Over 44.5 | 50 | +4.8 | 30–20 |
| Akron at Miami-OH | Over 46.5 | 51 | +4.8 | 35–16 |
Trends to follow
Trends are mined from 2021 to 2025, and random data produces plenty like them, so treat them as fun context, not predictions. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Home favorites of 14 to 24.5 points coming off a win of 30 or more points, and playing for a head coach in his first year at the school have not covered in any of 12 games since 2021.
Mississippi State at LSU
Trend side Mississippi State +16
Washington State at Oregon State
Trend side Washington State +18.5
SP+ pick this week: Oregon State −17.5
Trend side: 12 covers, 0 losses, 2021-2025 · 12 games · 2026: 1-2
Teams with a spread of 14 to 24.5 points coming off a bye week, and with a total line under 45 have gone Under in all 8 games since 2021.
Nevada at North Dakota State
Trend side Under 42.5
New Mexico at Hawai'i
Trend side Under 44.5
Trend side: 8 Unders, 0 Overs, 2021-2025 · 8 games · 2026: no games yet
Home teams coming off a win of 30 or more points, coming off a bye week, and with a total line over 55 have covered in 8 of 9 games since 2021.
Mississippi State at LSU
Trend side LSU −16
Trend side: 8 covers, 1 loss, 1 push, 2021-2025 · 10 games · 2026: no games yet
Home teams coming off a loss by 7 points or less, coming off a bye week, and with a total line under 45 have covered in 8 of 9 games since 2022.
Massachusetts at Buffalo
Trend side Buffalo −7
Penn State at Michigan
Trend side Michigan −7
New Mexico at Hawai'i
Trend side Hawai'i +15.5
Trend side: 8 covers, 1 loss, 2022-2025 · 9 games · 2026: no games yet
Teams coming off a loss by 7 points or less, in weeks 4 through 8, playing for a head coach in his first year at the school, and with a total line under 45 have covered in 8 of 9 games since 2021.
Penn State at Michigan
Trend side Michigan −7
Trend side: 8 covers, 1 loss, 2021-2025 · 9 games · 2026: 0-1
Home favorites of 0 to 3 points unbeaten so far this season, and playing for a head coach in his first year at the school have covered in 8 of 9 games since 2022.
Wisconsin at UCLA
Trend side UCLA −2.5
Trend side: 8 covers, 1 loss, 2022-2025 · 9 games · 2026: 0-2
Teams coming off a win of 30 or more points, coming off a bye week, in weeks 4 through 8, and traveling across time zones for the game have gone Over in 8 of 9 games since 2021.
Alabama at Tennessee
Trend side Over 51
New Mexico at Hawai'i
Trend side Over 44.5
Wake Forest at California
Trend side Over 53.5
Trend side: 8 Overs, 1 Under, 2021-2025 · 9 games · 2026: no games yet
Teams coming off a loss by 7 points or less, coming off a bye week, traveling across time zones for the game, and with a total line over 55 have gone Under in 8 of 9 games since 2021.
Louisville at Syracuse
Trend side Under 56
Navy at UTSA
Trend side Under 55.5
Trend side: 8 Unders, 1 Over, 2021-2025 · 9 games · 2026: no games yet
Teams coming off a 50-point game, playing their second straight road game, and in weeks 4 through 8 have gone Under in 7 of 8 games since 2021.
Memphis at Tulane
Trend side Under 55.5
Alabama at Tennessee
Trend side Under 51
Trend side: 7 Unders, 1 Over, 2021-2024 · 8 games · 2026: no games yet
Home underdogs coming off a loss by 7 points or less, coming off a bye week, and playing for a head coach in his first year at the school have gone Under in 7 of 8 games since 2022.
App State at Coastal Carolina
Trend side Under 48.5
Trend side: 7 Unders, 1 Over, 2022-2025 · 8 games · 2026: no games yet
Trends are mined from 2021 to 2025, and random data produces plenty like them, so treat them as fun context, not predictions. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.